Essays and notes on path dependence, uncertainty, and complex systems — the ideas behind the research artifacts.

Beyond the Realized Path

Most analysis focuses on the single path that occurred. Pathspace asks what changes when we explore the paths that could have occurred.

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Walking in the Dark

A risk model has memory but no sense of time. Moving it onto a dark hillside asks what it should remember, and how hard it should flinch when the ground surprises it.

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